{"id":17688,"date":"2026-03-01T00:10:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T00:10:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beritamerdeka.co.id\/on\/?p=17688"},"modified":"2026-03-01T00:10:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T00:10:25","slug":"perang-as-iran-memanas-ekonom-ingatkan-indonesia-di-ambang-triple-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beritamerdeka.co.id\/on\/perang-as-iran-memanas-ekonom-ingatkan-indonesia-di-ambang-triple-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"Perang AS\u2013Iran Memanas, Ekonom Ingatkan Indonesia di Ambang \u201cTriple Shock”"},"content":{"rendered":"

BeritaMerdeka.co.id<\/strong> – Eskalasi konflik antara Amerika Serikat dan Iran yang meletus Sabtu (28\/2\/2026) dinilai menjadi ancaman serius bagi stabilitas ekonomi global, termasuk Indonesia. Pengamat ekonomi Noviardi Ferzi memperingatkan, Indonesia berpotensi menghadapi tiga tekanan sekaligus: krisis energi, tekanan fiskal, dan gejolak moneter.<\/p>\n

\u201cKonflik ini dapat memicu triple shock bagi Indonesia. Namun dengan cadangan devisa yang relatif kuat dan respons kebijakan yang cepat, Indonesia masih memiliki ruang untuk mencegah resesi yang lebih dalam,\u201d ujar Noviardi.<\/p>\n

Ia menilai lonjakan harga minyak mentah Brent sebesar 18 persen ke level US$79 per barel baru merupakan fase awal. Jika konflik meluas dan mengganggu jalur strategis Selat Hormuz, harga minyak berpotensi melonjak hingga US$130\u2013US$150 per barel.<\/p>\n

\u201cBagi negara pengimpor minyak bersih seperti Indonesia, ini bukan sekadar kenaikan harga, tetapi sinyal bahaya serius,\u201d tegasnya.<\/p>\n

Ketergantungan impor minyak Indonesia yang telah mencapai sekitar 50 persen membuat APBN sangat rentan. Kenaikan harga energi otomatis meningkatkan beban subsidi BBM, LPG, dan listrik hingga triliunan rupiah, yang berisiko memperlebar defisit fiskal.<\/p>\n

Menurut Noviardi, pemerintah akan menghadapi dilema berat. Penyesuaian harga energi berpotensi mendorong inflasi menembus 5 persen, sementara mempertahankan subsidi akan memperbesar tekanan terhadap anggaran negara.<\/p>\n

Di sisi moneter, tekanan terhadap rupiah dinilai hampir tak terhindarkan. Arus modal berpotensi keluar dari pasar negara berkembang menuju aset safe haven seperti dolar AS dan emas, yang dapat memicu pelemahan nilai tukar, koreksi IHSG, serta penurunan harga obligasi pemerintah.<\/p>\n

Bank Indonesia, lanjutnya, kemungkinan dihadapkan pada pilihan sulit antara mengintervensi pasar menggunakan cadangan devisa atau menaikkan suku bunga acuan untuk menjaga stabilitas.<\/p>\n

\u201cKoordinasi yang kuat antara Bank Indonesia dan Kementerian Keuangan, serta komunikasi kebijakan yang kredibel, sangat penting untuk mencegah kepanikan pasar,\u201d ujarnya.<\/p>\n

Dampak lanjutan juga diperkirakan menjalar ke sektor riil. Kenaikan biaya energi dan logistik akan mendorong harga impor pangan dan bahan baku industri, menekan daya beli masyarakat, serta mempersempit margin sektor manufaktur.<\/p>\n

Noviardi menambahkan, konflik juga membawa konsekuensi ekonomi berat bagi kedua negara yang terlibat. Iran menghadapi inflasi di atas 40 persen, depresiasi mata uang hingga sekitar 95 persen, serta kehilangan pendapatan minyak dalam jumlah besar. Sementara itu, Amerika Serikat berpotensi menanggung beban fiskal tambahan di tengah utang nasional yang telah melampaui US$35 triliun.<\/p>\n

Untuk meredam risiko, ia mendorong pemerintah mempercepat diversifikasi sumber energi melalui kontrak jangka panjang dengan negara pemasok alternatif seperti Qatar, Arab Saudi, dan Australia. Selain itu, penguatan cadangan devisa hingga di atas US$150 miliar serta pemberian stimulus terarah, termasuk bantuan langsung tunai energi bagi kelompok rentan, dinilai menjadi langkah strategis menjaga stabilitas ekonomi nasional.***<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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